“With less than 14 days to the run off of the Edo State elections, it is that time when political temperatures across the entire nation and particularly in Edo where both the opposition party–PDP and ruling party – APC have branded their weapons and braced up for battle. The Edo State elections are anticipated to stand out as one of the most consequential political events in recent times, considering the strategic relevance of the state to national socio-political ethos. Opposition parties, on the other hand, have raised fears of electoral violence based on past disruptions during elections.”
In Image: These problems confluence points to a pivotal point in Nigeria’s political landscape
At the same time, continuing rises in petrol prices across the country have added a new dimension to the political dynamics with protests erupting in many areas one of which is Ogun State, where public employees were given two days off work as a response to unrest. It is the intersection of those Edo State elections and broader national questions that will begin to shape our future as a democratic state and how government, business, citizens view both.
Below is the full text of the article that examines the importance of the Edo State elections, rising fears of violence, and the impact that current economic challenges —particularly fuel price hike— may have on electoral turnout as well as poll outcome.
The Edo State Elections Strategic Importance
Edo State is politically and economically one of the most important states in southern Nigeria. It is popular not only for its cultural heritage but has also played an important role in the political history of Nigeria with Benin City as its capital. As the state prepares for election, the long history of partisan wrangling in an area known as a battleground between heavyweights like the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressives Congress (APC) point to wider national implications. Typically, these elections yield an indication of the country’s political balance.
The result of Edo State election is likely to have drastic effect in the political history of the country. Putting what would pass in home territory, it could recast relative power between the competition and the governing party – equipping control for next year’s national elections. Because of Edo State’s pre-eminence in the Nigerian polity, observers from all over the world interested in how solid Nigerian democracy is going to hold will also be monitoring the state election apart from local stakeholders.
Worries About Possible Violations During Elections
Frank Oshanugor | The Nation Hoodlums Meanwhile, one of the most pressing matters regarding the Edo State elections is that of likely violence. Elections in Nigeria, particularly at the sub-national level and areas of extreme political contention, have historically been interrupted by violence and other forms of instability. Well, it also happened be in Edo State. Opposition parties and civil society groups have voiced concern ahead of the polls about allegations of intimidation, vote-buying and violence in past elections.”
Other opposition parties comprising the PDP and minor regional parties, have alleged that the election could never be held in a completely free and fair manner. Without adequate security and oversight from independent election officials, they argue the Edo State elections could be rigged and violent. Reports of political thugs, illegal arms and clashes between rival party supporters at campaign rallies have all heightened fears of election-related violence.
To calm voters’ fears, Nigeria’s election agency has sought to assure all Nigerians that Tuesday’s exercise would be transparent and peaceful. In a bid to prevent election malpractice, INEC promised to monitor all processes and provide security personnel across the state. Nevertheless, safeguarding voters and the candidates from being harmed within the complex dynamics of Nigeria’s politics remains an arduous challenge.
Security Agencies Involvement in the Edo State Elections
You cannot over-emphasise the role of security agencies in the Edo State elections. The military and the police as security organizations to keep peace and order during elections hardly ever skipped in history lessons for facts in recent years. However, they have usually been controversial participants, accused of partisanship and discrimination against them. Even before the Edo State elections, opposition parties alleged that security operatives will be used to intimidate voters or favour the ruling party.”
To alleviate these concerns, international observers and civil society organizations have called for impartial security deployments. They insisted that for the Edo State elections to be credible, there is need for neutral security operatives who will allow all political parties compete on a level playing field. In addition, there is a need for voter education and public awareness campaigns to build the confidence of citizens to go out and vote without fear of getting attacked.
Socio-Economic Aspects: How the Edo State Elections Are Affected by Fuel Price Increases
Though always a major concern, political violence is expected to take a back seat to socioeconomic issues–particularly the recent hike in petrol prices–in influencing the Edo State elections. Nigeria has battled the issue of petrol subsidies for decades, and it has faced mass protests across the country over the past week after the decision to scrap them allowing prices to rise. Higher transportation costs and inflation as a whole, along with diminished living standards following the energy price rises, has made for angrier and more exasperated citizens.
The Ogun State administration recently declared two days of paid leave for public officials in response to protests against the rising price of petrol. It is considered as an attempt to reduce tensions while doing its bit for employees finding it tough to conquer the rising price of petrol they pay for the car fuel. Yet it is still tight in Edo and some fear that the protests, combined with the economic crisis engulfing the state, could discourage turnout at the polls next spring.
For many of the Edo people, the Edo State elections would not be an election to elect a governor or state lawmakers but rather a referendum on federal government performance and especially its economic policy. The governing APC that holds the federal government, is bracing for a strong backlash from voters dissatisfied with the performance of the economy. The PDP in particular will seize this disaffection and sell the elections to Edo State citizens as a chance to tell the powers that be in Abuja a home truth.
Voter Turnout and the Impact of Financial Difficulties
Like every other election, voter turnout equals one of the components that will make Edo State elections a great success. But continued economic distress due to rising gasoline prices could drive voter turnout in a major way. The cost of traveling to polling stations may heavily impact voting in Nigeria, where many struggle just to make ends meet The rising cost of living may also be a factor in voter apathy, as so many feel that their financial situation won’t change much with the elections.
Then, of course, there are economic barriers and the fact that some voters may not even want to turn up for the Edo State elections out of fear of violence. The previous elections have witnessed semblance of tackling voter participation such as ballot box stealing, voter intimidation and clashes between opposite party workers. If incidences of this nature repeat during subsequent elections there will be an even larger drop in the number of voters.
INEC and civil society groups have therefore insisted that voter education is even more critical to tackling these issues. To spread peaceful voting practice and to inform the public regarding their rights, some efforts are underway. And ensuring that polling places are open and accessible, and that people feel free to vote without the threat of harassment or violence.
The Function of International Observers and Civil Society
That would, of course, require international observers and the civil societies should mean a peaceful election in Edo stat. Such groups have also been very instrumental in promoting accountability and transparency for Nigerian elections, acting as watchdogs against electoral malpractice. They will be deployed to monitor the conduct of political parties, security agencies and INEC in the Edo State elections towards ensuring a free, fair and violence-free election process.
International observers, including delegates from the UN, the EU and the AU are expected to monitor the elections. Their involvement will ensure that any irregularities are addressed and dealt with. In addition, civil society organizations will try to offer voter education and promote nonviolent participation as well as protect voting rights.
Historical Background: Insights from Previous Elections
Edo State Election cycles of the past used to be a walk of shame, shunned by even the Gods themselves due to violence, election fraud allegations and general voter apathy. Looking at previous election results, we just keep moving forward down the path of anomalies and intimidation that are eroding away democratic elections. The ballot box theft, brawling at the polls and intimidation of opposition backers has marred the election scene.
Consequently, the restive political atmosphere is darkened by the prospect of more disruptions, which only raises fears among stakeholders and voters too. The historical context provides a case for the necessity of a more resilient electoral footing that guarantees unfettered elections and an equally necessary reminder that past mistakes have to be learned from, with active measures being taken to guarantee they do not occur again.
Social and Economic Difficulties: The Impact of Increasing Fuel Prices
Gasoline prices, which has brought much sorrow to the masses in these days, is one of those key issues currently affecting the Edo State Elections. Voter access to the polls has been severely limited after and due to the federal axing of gasoline subsidies, resulting in transport costs hitting all-time highs. The brutal reality of inflation, and the consequent rising rent prices, has been a challenge to many with civic duties. It has been noticeable that an even greater national malaise affecting the determination of Edo voters to participate in the gubernatorial election manifests itself, occasionally causing protests over socioeconomic grievances; Ogun State being one common spotlight.
Economic troubles could lead to voter disillusionment with the ruling party — that is the APC — at the polls. Cautious voting should give rise to rejection of candidates supporting a government which the public believes is doing too little to tackle their problems. The Edo State Election is not just about local governance opening the gates to whom we as citizens choose in leading us but also whether Nigerians approve or disapprove of the federal government performance. Such an attitude might endear any vote to the opposition party, especially with the PDP in a position where they can gain from the discontent from some quarters of the economy today.
Voter apathy and violence: a dangerous combination
There still hangs over the Edo State Elections, a likely threat of bloodshed. We have seen hints of violence already when political campaigns are beginning to intensify, and this is only heightening fears that people will try and disrupt the next election. Worry about election-related violence and voter intimidation has grown following allegations of armed political thugs interfering with campaign rallies, as well as the illicit supply of firearms. If such instances continued, it may only add to overall voter apathy observed in the country and non-supportive of voters whom they may feel could do with high security at voting places.
And the public perception that powerful political elites influence and/or manipulate the Edo State Elections is another factor placing an enormous burden on voter apathy. If they believe that their ballots are meaningless due to invidious violence and putrescent corruption, people may simply choose not to join the election process at all.
It also plagued with disenfranchisement that takes a long-term toll, weakening public confidence in democratic institutions and undermining the legitimacy of those who receive elected office. Hence the need for political parties, civil society groups and security services to collaborate in presenting an enabling environment where those wishing to take part in the Edo State Election peacefully will be able to do so without fear of violence or intimidation.
The Significance of Awareness and Education
Considering the complexity of the issues related to Edo State Election, voter education is an important tool for linearly corresponding to violence and increasing turnout. Public information about what rights voters have to participate in elections, how elections work and why civic participation is important could also encourage higher levels of voting activity. In this regard, civil society groups are crucial in sharing exposure programs that aim to sensitize voters to the need for going out to vote.
Campaigns to educate voters in Edo State Election must also counter fears of intimidation and violence (2) When voters can report election misconduct and are encouraged to resist intimidation, there is an increased chance of a more engaged and robust electorate. With the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and other civil society organizations going all out to follow through on such teaching programs as it relates voting systems, the need for collective participation within communities in establishing a safe space where elections can be freely expressed remains eminent.
Global Observers: An Essential Component of Responsibility
Foreign monitors are needed for the Edo State Election to be valid They also help to ensure transparency in the voting process and deter electoral malfeasance. The thought is that observers from bodies like the African Union and United Nations would follow these polls closely and impartially assess the conduct of INEC, security actors and political parties.
Those observers will be essential in watching to hold accountable those who participate in the elections by documenting any irregularities that they do. Moreover, their presence may allay fears, telling voters that if something does happen to their rights, there will be outsiders watching over the election. The resolve for transparency and accountability in systems, processes, procedures that are not only at the centre of the Edo State Election but equally pertinent to Nigeria as a nation where democratic institutions have always been under siege.
The Way Forward: A Team-Based Strategy
As Nigeria approaches the Edo State Election, all stakeholders—political parties, civic society, security forces and international observers—must work together to guarantee a peaceful and credible election process. In combating these linked issues of political violence, economic crisis and previous election losses, an important part will be to build voter confidence and safeguard them. The Edo State Election results are more than a local barometer. They will be felt across the country and will influence national mindsets about democracy, governance and even productivity.
Peaceful Elections Are Essential to Nigeria’s Democracy
This is not an issue that is only relevant to the good people of Edo State, but a matter that relates to the health of Nigeria democracy which will be sadly indebted with the payment of Edo state elections. Nigeria matters for regional geopolitical and economic dynamics — it is the most populous country in Africa. Holding a successful and credible election in Edo State will prove the strength of Nigeria’s democratic institutions, as well as the nation’s commitment to upholding rule of law.
Conversely, to the extent that there is violence or other irregularities during the Edo State elections, it could set back our democracy as well as the impression of Nigerians about future elections. It is for this reason that the elections must be transparent and peaceful both for local and foreign players.
The Edo State elections to come will usher a new dawn in the political history of Nigeria. THE stakes are high for political parties and voters in Edo State as concerns over electoral violence, escalating fuel prices and economic hardship intensified. Not only will the outcome of the election determine the fate of the state, but it will also send shockwaves through national politics.
“To ensure a credible and peaceful election, all actors in the Edo State elections should work with security services, civil society organisations, political parties and international observers. And the outcome of the elections in Edo State will prove that Nigerian democracy is alive and well, and committed to transparent governance.”